Miami vs Florida State Predictions

When the ACC released its schedule, Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal undoubtedly looked at this weekend’s matchup as a possible conference championship game preview. Whoops. Instead, beating the Florida State Seminoles would just move the Hurricanes to .500 in conference play, far from contending.

Hence, a two-touchdown edge in this Sunshine State matchup. There’s little reason to doubt Florida State, even against a roster as talented on paper as Miami’s. But will that be enough for the Seminoles to cover this 14-point college football odds spread?

Let’s find the Hurricanes’ weaknesses in our free college football picks and predictions for Miami vs. Florida State on November 11, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET.

Miami vs Florida State best odds

Miami vs Florida State picks and predictions

Miami will have little choice but to learn a tough lesson on Saturday: Don’t throw against Florida State. The Seminoles pass defense ranks No. 4 in expected points added per dropback against as well as No. 4 in passer rating against. Some of that may have been attributable to Pittsburgh’s woebegone offense, but nope, the Seminoles ranked No. 4 in EPA per dropback against even before facing the Panthers’ debacle.

Consider the teams atop the passer rating defense list: Ohio State, Michigan, and Notre Dame. Iowa, Clemson, Georgia, and Penn State also fill in the Top 10, not to mention 9-1 Toledo.

It is a genuine indicator of a top-tier defense.

The difference between Florida State and at least five of those teams is that it also enjoys a top-tier offense, one led by Jordan Travis and ranking No. 7 in EPA, No. 9 in scoring and No. 9 in yards per play. That offense plays a role in the Seminoles’ successful defense.

First of all, it always scores some points, managing at least 31 points in every game this season before laughing to a 24-7 win at Pittsburgh last week despite missing significant offensive personnel. Neither Keon Coleman nor Johnny Wilson played last week, but both have practiced this week. That offensive showing can be largely ignored, the byproduct of a shorthanded offense enjoying an easy afternoon against a collapsing opponent.

Anyway, Florida State scores.

And then opponents need to keep up. Here is where Miami will have little choice. Its defense is good, absolutely, but no one has held the Seminoles in check yet. Neither Clemson nor Duke managed to. Betting on the Hurricanes to find that success would be a bet based on little-to-no evidence.

Miami will try to throw to keep up with Florida State, leaning on quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Please do not be mistaken by what is to come here: Van Dyke is good, probably underrated at this point (after being overrated last season because he was underrated in 2021 — narrative can yo-yo in college football). But there is a reason opponents run the ball against the Seminoles 4.2{44f8fb62c767d9a0e024bd2a609adf80ac0b081e02fd95d47dd066fb0a89173b} more than would be typically expected when considering game state (score, down, distance, time, field position), ranking No. 22 in the country.

That reason is simple: They don’t succeed when throwing the ball.

When the Hurricanes try to throw it, they will make mistakes, Van Dyke will be pressured, the Seminoles haranguing opposing quarterbacks on 35.6{44f8fb62c767d9a0e024bd2a609adf80ac0b081e02fd95d47dd066fb0a89173b} of dropbacks, No. 28 in the country, per cfb-graphs.com.

Van Dyke fares relatively well under pressure, evading sacks far more often than not, but the pressure is often the key. He’s thrown 11 interceptions, and it would be fair to expect at least one more this weekend.

But Miami has little other choice. As middling as Florida State’s rush defense is (No. 69 in adjusted EPA per rush), the Hurricanes’ rush offense is just as middling (No. 68 in rushing success rate). When Miami runs the ball, it lessens its chances of victory. That’s a cold-hard reality in Cristobal’s second season.

In other words, the Hurricanes will have no offense to trust this weekend, while the Seminoles’ offense has yet to falter. Both halves of that thought should be worth a touchdown, setting up Florida State to cover this spread.

My best bet: Florida State -14 (-110 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Miami vs Florida State same-game parlay

To be self-critical, there is no valid reason for not taking Miami’s team total Under 17.5 points; it is mere cowardice.

A chaotic fourth quarter and/or a garbage-time touchdown could doom that number while still not threatening the spread. Similarly, they could doom a game-long Under thought. Hence, a first-half Under play.

Cutting loose in the first half would be entirely dependent on Florida State’s offense, and that has not been its habit this season, scoring more than 17 first-half points in just two of nine games against Power Five opponents, those two being Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. In the other seven, the Seminoles reached halftime with somewhere between 10 and 17 points, an adequate but not jaw-dropping start to a game.

A deliberate first half like that should keep Tyler Van Dyke out of the end zone early, and then there is one simple fact to recognize: Florida State’s defense has given up four passing touchdowns this season.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Miami vs Florida State spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened with the Seminoles favored by 13 on Sunday, jumping as high as -15 that evening. As the week came, the number dropped, toggling between -14 and -14.5 in the midweek and settling at -14 on Thursday, though how much can really be gleaned by moving from -15 to -14?

Florida State has won its ACC games by an average of 18.4 points this season, a number jumping to 21.2 if removing the self-induced error-plagued 31-29 win at Boston College. Otherwise, only Clemson has stayed within this number against the ACC frontrunners.

The total opened at 52.5 before falling to 50 on Sunday, slipping back to 51 on Thursday — some books sticking to 50.5, while others are at 51.5. Betting the Over here is a bet on Florida State’s offense, a viable thought but perhaps not one to be fully embraced like that this week.

Miami vs Florida State betting trend to know

Miami is 1-4 against the spread in conference play this season, part of having a point differential of -16 in five ACC games. Find more college football betting trends for Miami vs Florida State.

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