Mark Vientos has a great pitching matchup tonight, highlighting Kenny Ducey’s favorite MLB home run prop picks.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Vientos runs the bases.
We’ve got a fun Monday to look forward to in the Major Leagues, and I think at least one prominent home run threat from a season ago will finally get on the board in 2025.
I’ll take a look at three attackable pitchers who are bound to give up some home runs tonight and pick out the best hitters to profit with.
Here are my free MLB player props for Monday, April 7.
Best MLB home run props today
HR picks for April 7
Mark Vientos (+290 at Caesars)
I must attack Valente Bellozo tonight, the likeliest pitcher to allow a home run on this slate. He owns a 12.3% home run-to-fly ball ratio at this big-league level and posted a mark of 16.7% at Triple-A last season.
The righty pitches primarily to fly balls without many redeeming qualities, and that’s why you’ll find plenty of expensive prices on these Mets to go yard.
While I’d love to take a stab at someone like Jesse Winker — who easily could hit one out — I’m going to side with a right-handed hitter given Bellozo has rather extreme reverse platoon splits.
He allowed a .285 average to righties last season in the minors compared to a .217 versus lefties, and for his career at the big-league level that split is .269 vs .238 with 10 of the 15 homers he’s allowed going to right-handed hitters.
Mark Vientos has yet to get it going this season, but he is coming off a 27-homer campaign and managed to impact the baseball at some exciting clips over a large sample. It may take a friendly matchup like this to get him off and running in the home run department.
Shea Langeliers (+400 at Caesars)
It’s time to fire up Shea Langeliers, who’s now homered twice in his last four games and is 4-for-14 over that span.
Betting home runs inside this incredibly hitter-friendly park in Sacramento will make us a lot of money early in the season, and Monday should bring us a great opportunity with Michael King taking the mound for San Diego.
King’s a big-time strikeout arm, which almost always comes with issues in the power department. That’s certainly the case here as he’s pitched to an elevated fly-ball rate for three years now and has already allowed two barrels in just 7 2/3 innings — one of which left the park.
The RHP is protected in a pitcher’s park, which he calls home, but we’re quickly seeing that fly balls that are even relatively well-struck are a threat to leave this stadium in Sacramento.
Langeliers owns a .484 Expected Slugging Percentage off changeups since the start of last year and a .469 versus sinkers, two pitches he’ll see almost exclusively against King.
He stands as the team’s second-best hitter against the combination of the two, next to just Brent Rooker, but with King featuring the change a bit more this season and the sinker less, I think “Bangeliers” is your guy here.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (+550 at Caesars)
Believe it or not, not one Diamondback has homered off Zach Eflin in their careers, which is somewhat crazy given his issues allowing homers over the years and the fact that it’s come in a 55-plate appearance sample.
The only guy who’s come somewhat close is Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who has averaged over 96 mph off the bat in the three times he’s made contact off the contact-friendly righty, racking up a .509 xSLG%.
I say all of that because you’d have to say Eflin is a bit vulnerable in this spot given Arizona’s continued prominence in the power department and its expert plate discipline.
Eflin gave up 22 longballs a year ago as a strike-throwing machine, and it makes sense without an extreme tilt towards ground balls or fly balls. There’s no rhyme or reason to how he seeks to record outs, which are the types that Gurriel feasts on.
Gurriel hit .290 a year ago with 11 of his 18 homers against pitchers who profile in the middle regarding batted ball trajectory, and on top of that, he’s already shown some slight gains in the power department with two homers thus far in 2025.
His home park certainly could kill some of the vibe, but he did hit 10 homers in 70 games.
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